En potentiel risiko for nedgang i den økonomiske vækst kan skyldes den høje husstandsgæld i tilfælde af drastiske fald i boligpriserne og rentestigninger.
Insolvencies increase again in 2019, although less than in 2018
Swedish business insolvencies increased in 2017 and 2018 after three years of annual decreases. In 2019, another 3% increase is expected, mainly due to upward carry-over effects from the large increase seen in 2018.
GDP growth expected to slow down in 2019
In 2017 and 2018 the Swedish economy grew about 2.5% annually, supported by a loose monetary policy, robust domestic demand and solid investment and export growth. In 2019, the economic expansion is expected to slow down to below 2%, as both domestic and external demand weakens. As a small open economy highly dependent on exports, Sweden is susceptible to a potential downturn in global trade.
In order to combat deflation and to weaken the currency, the Swedish Central Bank has repeatedly lowered the repo rate since July 2014. Despite a hike in December 2018, the rate remains negative at -0.25%. Inflation is expected to remain close to the Central Bank´s target of 2% in 2019 and 2020.
A potential downside risk to the economy remains high household debt, triggered by housing demand and easy access to credit. Despite a tightening of mortgage amortization requirements the household debt-to-disposable-income-ratio was still more than 180% in 2018, making private households vulnerable to sharp decreases in house prices and interest rate hikes. However, healthy public finances provide room for fiscal loosening in case of an economic downturn.